Large Language Models that are evaluated on multiple metrics.

Forward Osmosis (FO) is a promising low-energy membrane separation technology, but challenges in accurately modelling its water flux (Jw) persist due to complex internal mass transfer phenomena. Traditional mechanistic models struggle with empirical parameter variability, while purely data-driven models lack physical consistency and rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). This study introduces a novel Robust Hybrid Physics-ML framework employing Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for highly accurate, uncertainty-aware Jw prediction. The core innovation lies in training the GPR on the residual error between the detailed, non-linear FO physical model prediction (Jw_physical) and the experimental water flux (Jw_actual). Crucially, we implement a full UQ methodology by decomposing the total predictive variance (sigma2_total) into model uncertainty (epistemic, from GPR's posterior variance) and input uncertainty (aleatoric, analytically propagated via the Delta method for multi-variate correlated inputs). Leveraging the inherent strength of GPR in low-data regimes, the model, trained on a meagre 120 data points, achieved a state-of-the-art Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.26% and an R2 of 0.999 on the independent test data, validating a truly robust and reliable surrogate model for advanced FO process optimization and digital twin development.

Large Language Models that are evaluated on multiple metrics.

Epistemic uncertainty quantification is a crucial part of drawing credible conclusions from predictive models, whether concerned about the prediction at a given point or any downstream evaluation that uses the model as input.

Adaptation is the holy grail of intelligence, but even the best AI models (like GPT) lack the adaptivity of toddlers. So the question remains: how can machines adapt quickly? Despite a lot of progress on model adaptation to facilitate continual and federated learning, as well as model merging, editing, unlearning, etc., little is known about the mechanisms by which machines can naturally learn to adapt in a similar way as humans and animals. Here, we show that all such adaptation methods can be seen as different ways of `correcting' the approximate posteriors. More accurate posteriors lead to smaller corrections, which in turn imply quicker adaptation. The result is obtained by using a dual-perspective of the Bayesian Learning Rule of Khan and Rue (2023) where interference created during adaptation is characterized by the natural-gradient mismatch over the past data. We present many examples to demonstrate the use of posterior-correction as a natural mechanism for the machines to learn to adapt quickly.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language processing tasks. Still, they are prone to generating hallucinations--factually incorrect or fabricated content that can undermine their reliability, especially in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and legal advisory. In response to this challenge, we propose Delta, a novel inference-time approach that leverages contrastive decoding to mitigate hallucinations without requiring model retraining or additional training data. Delta works by randomly masking portions of the input prompt, then contrasting the original and masked output distribution generated by the model, effectively mitigating hallucinations through inferenceonly computations. Delta was evaluated on context-rich QA benchmarks like SQuAD v1.1 and v2, achieving around 3 and 6 percentage points of improvement, respectively. It also showed gains of 7 and 2 percentage points on TriviaQA and Natural Question under-sampling decoding. Delta improved SQuAD v2's noanswer exact match by over ten percentage points.

Stochastic dominance is an important concept in probability theory, econometrics and social choice theory for robustly modeling agents' preferences between random outcomes. While many works have been dedicated to the univariate case, little has been done in the multivariate scenario, wherein an agent has to decide between different multivariate outcomes. By exploiting a characterization of multivariate first stochastic dominance in terms of couplings, we introduce a statistic that assesses multivariate almost stochastic dominance under the framework of Optimal Transport with a smooth cost. Further, we introduce an entropic regularization of this statistic, and establish a central limit theorem (CLT) and consistency of the bootstrap procedure for the empirical statistic. Armed with this CLT, we propose a hypothesis testing framework as well as an efficient implementation using the Sinkhorn algorithm. We showcase our method in comparing and benchmarking Large Language Models that are evaluated on multiple metrics. Our multivariate stochastic dominance test allows us to capture the dependencies between the metrics in order to make an informed and statistically significant decision on the relative performance of the models.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or stochastic approximation has been widely used in model training and stochastic optimization. While there is a huge literature on analyzing its convergence, inference on the obtained solutions from SGD has only been recently studied, yet is important due to the growing need for uncertainty quantification. We investigate two computationally cheap resampling-based methods to construct confidence intervals for SGD solutions. One uses multiple, but few, SGDs in parallel via resampling with replacement from the data, and another operates this in an online fashion. Our methods can be regarded as enhancements of established bootstrap schemes to substantially reduce the computation effort in terms of resampling requirements, while at the same time bypassing the intricate mixing conditions in existing batching methods. We achieve these via a recent so-called cheap bootstrap idea and Berry-Esseen-type bound for SGD.

Classifiers based on neural networks (NN) often lack a measure of uncertainty in the predicted class. We propose a method to estimate the probability mass function (PMF) of the different classes, as well as the covariance of the estimated PMF. First, a local linear approach is used during the training phase to recursively compute the covariance of the parameters in the NN. Secondly, in the classification phase another local linear approach is used to propagate the covariance of the learned NN parameters to the uncertainty in the output of the last layer of the NN. This allows for an efficient Monte Carlo (MC) approach for: (i) estimating the PMF; (ii) calculating the covariance of the estimated PMF; and (iii) proper risk assessment and fusion of multiple classifiers. Two classical image classification tasks, i.e., MNIST, and CFAR10, are used to demonstrate the efficiency the proposed method.

Out-of-sample prediction is the acid test of predictive models, yet an independent test dataset is often not available for assessment of the prediction error. For this reason, out-of-sample performance is commonly estimated using data splitting algorithms such as cross-validation or the bootstrap. For quantitative outcomes, the ratio of variance explained to total variance can be summarized by the coefficient of determination or in-sample $R^2$, which is easy to interpret and to compare across different outcome variables. As opposed to the in-sample $R^2$, the out-of-sample $R^2$ has not been well defined and the variability on the out-of-sample $\hat{R}^2$ has been largely ignored. Usually only its point estimate is reported, hampering formal comparison of predictability of different outcome variables. Here we explicitly define the out-of-sample $R^2$ as a comparison of two predictive models, provide an unbiased estimator and exploit recent theoretical advances on uncertainty of data splitting estimates to provide a standard error for the $\hat{R}^2$. The performance of the estimators for the $R^2$ and its standard error are investigated in a simulation study. We demonstrate our new method by constructing confidence intervals and comparing models for prediction of quantitative $\text{Brassica napus}$ and $\text{Zea mays}$ phenotypes based on gene expression data.